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Contents

 

 

 

 

 

Preface

 

1

 

 

 

Acknowledgments

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Part One: The General Context

 

 

 

 

 

Jack SNYDER

 

 

Potential European Crises in Historical Perspective: Intervention versus Localization

 

5

 

 

 

Mark ALMOND

 

 

Learning from History's Past Mistakes How to Make New Ones

 

12

 

 

 

Andrei V. KORTUNOV

 

 

Sources of International Crises after the End of the Cold War

 

15

 

 

 

Ignac GOLOB

 

 

Europe after the Cold War - Changes, Conflicts, Prevention. A Viewpoint from Ljubljana

 

20

 

 

 

Part Two: Sources of Future Possible Crises

 

 

 

 

 

András BALOGH and Csaba Sz. KISS

 

 

Conventional Wisdom Regarding National Minorities and International Security

 

27

 

 

 

Vincent MARTIN-PAVAILLIER

 

The Nuclear Question and European Security

 

40

 

 

 

Klaus ZIEMER

 

 

Deficits in Institution-Building as Possible Sources of Crisis in Eastern Europe

 

52

 

 

 

 

 

 

Helmut FREUDENSCHUß

 

 

Five Antidotes to Nationalism: An Austrian Perspective

 

60

 

 

 

Part Three: Areas of Future Possible Crises

 

 

 

 

 

A. Former Yugoslavia

 

 

 

 

 

Predrag SIMIC

 

 

Conflict Management versus Conflict Solution: The Case of Yugoslavia

 

67

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marco CARNOVALE

 

 

Preventing the Internationalization of the Yugoslav War

 

84

 

 

 

Hans STARK

 

 

The Conflict in the Former Yugoslavia and European Securit

 

89

 

 

 

B. Former Soviet Republics

 

 

 

 

 

Mykhailo KIRSENKO

 

 

A Possible Area of Future Crisis: The Relations between the Ukraine and Russia

 

95

 

 

 

Volodymyr VASSYLENKO

 

 

Ukrainian-Russian Relations as a Source of Possible Major International Conflict. A Policy View from Kiev

 

101

 

 

 

C. The Balkans

 

 

 

 

 

Elena ZAMFIRESCU

 

 

The Flight from the Balkans

 

 

111

Part Four: Conflict Prevention

 

 

 

 

 

Adam Daniel ROTFELD

 

 

Conflict Solution: The Role of International Organizations

 

123

 

 

 

Albrecht von MÜLLER and David LAW

 

 

Crisis Management and Conflict Prevention in a Historic Transition Period

 

130

 

Lothar RÜHL

 

 

Preventive Diplomacy, Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution

 

146

 

 

 

Willem F. van EEKELEN

 

 

The Role of WEU in Dealing with Future Crises

 

151

 

 

 

Annex: Excerpts of the discussions following the presentations given at the conference

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

159

The Historical and Geographical Context

 

159

Sources of Future Possible Crises

 

181

Areas of Future Possible Crises

 

189

Significance and Implications of Crises

 

218

Prevention of Future Possible Crises

 

241

Policy Recommendations

 

260

Contributors

 

273